We need new pipelines - and we need them now.
According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) 2016 Crude Oil Forecast, Canada's pipeline network is almost at capacity and will not be able to accommodate hundreds of millions of barrels of additional oil production over the next five years.
"Canada's energy future relies on our ability to get Canadian oil and gas to the people who need it," said CAPP president and CEO Tim McMillan. "Connecting Canadian supply to new and growing markets abroad, safely and competitively, is a top priority."
According to CAPP's 2016 Crude Oil Forecast:
- The Canadian pipeline network has a current capacity of 4 million barrels per day (bpd). The average supply in 2015 was 3.981 bpd.
- Between 2016 and 2021 from oil sands production alone, an additional 850,000 barrels per day will come on line.
- That capacity will grow by another 700,000 barrels per by day by 2030.
- In terms of total oil production (oil sands, conventional oil and natural gas), we will go from 3.8 million barrels per day to 4.9 by 2030. This is 400,000 bpd lower than the 2015 forecast.
- This means that within five years, we will not be able to transport oil produced in Canada by pipeline.
- New pipelines will reduce Canada's reliance on the United States as our sole export market for oil and gas. U.S. oil and gas production has increased dramatically over the past few years and they recently lifted their foreign export ban. These changes mean our biggest customer is now our biggest competitor.
- New pipelines are also critical to allow Canada, with the world's third largest oil reserves, to help meet global demand for energy and get world prices for our resources.
- The International Energy Agency forecasts that global demand for energy, including oil, will increase more than 30 per cent by 2040, with a quarter of that demand for oil.
- China and India, two of the world's largest green house gas (GHG) emitters, will make up for 84 per cent of total world oil demand between now and 2040.
- Access to new markets will allow Canada to, for example, supply oil and gas to the Chinese and Indian economies, allowing them to reduce their reliance on fuel sources with a significant GHG output, such as coal.
Find the news release here.
Find the full report here.